You have to look at the open source movement as a global phenomenon. My day literally starts with a call from Moscow and ends with a call from Beijing. From that perspective, geography is less important in this incredible global collaboration over the Internet.
Having said that, I'd like to look specifically at Oregon and where I believe Oregon provides a leading role...starting with Linus...I think it's important to Oregon that Linus lives there. I think that is a real indication of the importance of Portland as a place where real leaders in the open source community reside and do their work.
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There is opportunity for places like Portland because of this fact, that it is a global phenomenon, to really attract top people to the area, either to be close to their peer group, or just based on the fact that it's a more affordable and superior standard of living.
It will be interesting to see what Portland looks like in 20 years. Come to think of it, it will be interesting to see what lots of places look like in 20 years. I am naturally most interested in Portland since I will in all likelihood still be here involved in the creation of software.
I see more small - mid sized software companies in Portland's future. Also small satellite development centers for mid-large companies as the world continues to flatten. I don't see many major companies moving here or anything like that. Portland has a decent amount of talent in open source & software more broadly.
The biggest thing Portland really has going for it is people (especially creative people) will typically move here in a heart beat as it is such a great / unique place to live.
I don't see Portland ever being a Tier 1 city or major tech hub. But clearly over time (20 years or so) SF, Portland, and Seattle will continue to morph together. I see a very bright future for software in Portland.